Thursday, July 10, 2008

From Losers to Lottery Picks

Last month's draft seems like a distant memory, so let's start prepping for next year's draft. I know next to nothing about who's hot and who's not for 2009. But it might not even matter - the Jazz may not even have a first round pick next year.

Here's the skinny on our future picks. Due to the Korver/Giricek trade, we owe Philly a first round pick sometime between next year and 2013. However, due to the memorable 2004 Keon Clark/Tom Gugliotta trade we picked up a first rounder from the Suns (who acquired it from the Knicks in the Stephon Marbury trade).

Both picks are heavily protected next year, but the Knick's pick is completely unprotected in 2010! (Note: good GMs never let picks become completely unprotected. Score one more for Isaiah.) 2009:

So, here's the breakdown for the 2009 draft. First, let's suppose that the Knicks are not one of the top 8 teams in the league next year. This seems like pretty safe assumption, unless they can find someone to feed Malik Rose in the post. If they suck the Knicks keep their 2009 pick. If the Jazz are a top 8 team next year then Philly receives our first round pick. That means if the Jazz pick between 23-30 next year, the pick goes to the 76ers; if the Jazz pick between 1-22 we keep the pick, but still owe Philly a future pick.

2010:

With me so far? Now, 2010 is where things get hairy. If the 76ers get our pick in 2009, the Jazz get two first round picks in 2010 - their own pick as well as the Knick's pick. This is the ideal scenario.


On the other hand, if they still owe Philly a pick the Jazz would forfeit their own pick to the 76ers if the Jazz' pick is outside of the first 15 picks. If in some cruel twist of fate the Jazz are lottery-bound in 2010 (like if Boozer and Okur both opt out), then the Jazz keep both picks in 2010.

2011-2013:

If the Jazz' pick doesn't go to Philly by 2010, the 76ers receive the Jazz' pick in the first year in which the pick is between 17-30. If (god forbid) the Jazz never draft higher than 16th from 2010-2013 then they give Philly some cash and call it even.

Outlook:

So, what should the red-blooded Jazz fan cheer for in the coming years? First, hope that the Jazz are one of the top 8 teams in the league next year. That way we give Philly a crappy pick in a crappy draft. Then silently root against the Knicks next year (as long as they aren't an elite team we're golden) and then root like crazy against them in 2010. It's impossible to predict the state of the Knicks in 2010 (look at the turnaround the 76ers have pulled off in 6 months) but if anyone is capable of sucking in two years its a team that still has three more years of the Jared Jeffries era to look forward to. If the Knicks really tank in 2010 the Jazz could have two picks in that year, including a dynamite lottery pick.

6 comments:

The Crotty Kid said...

By the way - it's REALLY hard to find a picture of Keon Clark in a Jazz uniform.

Draft Guru said...

Brilliant summary! Basically we want the Knicks to suck for two straight years. Who knows how good they'll be with D'Antoni as coach? The Knicks will be trying to unload salary in the meantime to get under the cap for the 2010 spending-spree (who knows how this will affect their wins/losses?). This is important to the Jazz...because we'll be going through serious changes with resigning our players & managing our own cap space over the next two years. Having a dynamite lotto pick in our pocket could literally change our fortunes and future in how we desire to spend our $$$. Oh the possibilities in 2010!

Pasty Gangsta said...

One would think the Knicks would be crappy in two years because, as the Guru points out, they're going to be unloading salaries like crazy in preparation to go after LeBron James ("go after" might be too weak of a phrase. . . "have David Stern mandate the addition of" is probably better). On the other hand, they have some AWFUL contracts. These include a bunch of player options worth tens of millions of dollars. . .not all that easy to unload. On the OTHER hand (yes, I have three hands) their expensive players also happen to also be incredibly crappy -- except for Randolph, who is crazy instead -- so even if they don't unload them they'll likely suck.

As the secretary who sued the Knicks for $11.6 million and won once said (or at least should have said), God Bless Isiah!

The Crotty Kid said...

Here's what to expect from the 2010Knicks: they will absolutely still have Q Richardson and Jerome James - they have a combined $15 million expiring that year. I also can't imagine anyone taking Randolph (17 million) and probably not Curry (11 million). The most likely trade condidates are David Lee and Jamal Crawford - guys that actually have some value. If the Knicks dump Crawford for a contract expiring in 2010, they could get under the cap enough to make a run at Lebron. They would also be pretty bad.

Basketball John said...

I think we should erect a statue of Isiah outside the ESA for the 2010 pick.

The Crotty Kid said...

Isaiah really screwed the proverbial pooch on that trade. I mean trading for Marbury is bad enough, but including two first rounders, including the 2010 pick that is SO highly protected that the Knicks would have had to be an elite team for it NOT to be unprotected is unforgiveable. I can't imagine what his "current role" with the Knicks is.